Run home to the AFL finals The race for the eight heats up

With four games left, there are still 12 teams who can mathematically play finals football in what has proven to be another bizarre season.

A huge win by the Western Bulldogs over Melbourne in the top-of-the-table clash means the Dogs will now be gunning for the minor premiership, but the Demons and Port Adelaide still have some work to do to lock down a top-two spot.

And down the other end, does anyone actually want eighth spot? Greater Western Sydney remain in the box seat after Sunday’s victory, but Essendon and Richmond may still have something to say about that. Carlton, however, are preparing for next season.

Back during the pre-season, our pundits gazed into the crystal ball and came up with their top-eight predictions. Unsurprisingly, Richmond featured highly for most. Our scribes have had another go at their prognostications with four rounds to play.

1: WESTERN BULLDOGS

56 pts 139.9%

RUN HOME: Adelaide (H), Essendon (H), Hawthorn (A), Port Adelaide (H)

WE SAY: The Dogs will start hot favourites in their next three games against Adelaide, Essendon and Hawthorn before a crucial final round clash against Port Adelaide, who may need to win to secure a top-four spot. Injuries to defenders Alex Keath (hamstring) and Ed Richards (concussion) will force Luke Beveridge to rearrange the magnets. But he’s done that before to great success and he has excellent depth at his disposal. Couldn’t be better placed.

Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge.Credit:Getty Images

2: GEELONG

56 points 132.1%

RUN HOME: North Melbourne (A), Giants (H), St Kilda (H), Melbourne (H)

WE SAY: With three of their final four games at GMHBA Stadium, the Cats have all but secured a top four spot already. It’s been an incredible season and if you take away their round 15 brain fade against Brisbane, Geelong’s last loss came at the start of May. Chris Scott’s biggest challenge heading towards September will be team selection. Jeremy Cameron and Mitch Duncan will be automatic selections when they return from injury in the next month, but who will make way? Is Shaun Higgins in the Cats’ best 23?

3. MELBOURNE

54 points 124.2%

RUN HOME: Gold Coast (A), West Coast (A), Adelaide (H), Geelong (A)

WE SAY: Simon Goodwin’s quest to find the Demons’ most efficient forward line has been well documented, but he must now do it during a pretty difficult lead in to the finals. The Suns have proven themselves to be difficult to break down of late and trips to Perth and Geelong will be difficult. Clayton Oliver recently said that his side lifts for the big occasions ... they’re going to need to in order to secure that vital double chance.

4. PORT ADELAIDE

52 points 121%

RUN HOME: GWS (TBC), Adelaide (H), Carlton (H), Western Bulldogs (A)

WE SAY: As we build towards September, Port Adelaide are one of the more difficult clubs to read. No-one seems to be talking about them as a genuine premiership threat, but they’ve won seven of their last nine and their next three games are very winnable. If they can win those and get valuable game time into Connor Rozee, Xavier Duursma and Zak Butters, Port may be able to recapture the form that made them preliminary finalists 12 months ago.

5. BRISBANE LIONS

48 points 127.3%

RUN HOME: Hawthorn (A), Fremantle (A), Collingwood (H), West Coast (H)

WE SAY: The good news is the Lions have a pretty decent run home. The bad news? A top four spot is no longer in their own hands. They’ll start hot favourites in their next three games before a final round clash with West Coast in what could prove to be vital for both the eight and the top four. Key defender Marcus Adams should return from a foot injury before the start of finals and is Joe Daniher peaking at the right time of the season?

Joe Daniher.Credit:Getty Images

6. SYDNEY

48 points 118.8%

RUN HOME: Essendon (A), St Kilda (A), North Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (TBC)

WE SAY: Yes the Swans are the story of the season so far. But you know what? They’re not here to make up the numbers. In fact, they can push for a top four spot with a favourable draw. The Swans have won their last four matches by an average of 44 points and a guy by the name of Lance Franklin just successfully appealed a one-match ban. Buddy is closing in on 1000 goals and the Swans are getting closer to one of their most remarkable seasons in recent times.

7: WEST COAST EAGLES

40 pts 98.6%

RUN HOME: v Collingwood (A), Melbourne (H), Fremantle (H), Brisbane (A)

WE SAY: Breathed a sigh of relief when they held on against St Kilda, for the Saints are also competing for a finals berth. Low percentage is a potential issue. Should beat Collingwood and have a banged-up Fremantle to come but two premiership fancies could be roadblocks. If Tim Kelly continues to fire, and they inject a bit more speed into their predictable game plan, they should be alive come September.

8: GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY

34 pts 96.6%

RUN HOME:v Port Adelaide (H), Geelong (A), Richmond (H), Carlton (A)

WE SAY: Hard to work out the Giants but their win over the Bombers has them well placed to make the top eight. The Power and Cats are significant challenges but a win against either, with the Tigers and Blues to come, should be enough. The return of match-winner Toby Greene is an enormous boost.

9: ESSENDON

32 pts 103.4%

RUN HOME: v Sydney (H), Western Bulldogs (A), Gold Coast (A), Collingwood (H)

WE SAY: The Bombers have made significant progress this season but a return to the finals in Ben Rutten’s first season as coach may be a step too far. The Swans and Bulldogs are among the hottest teams right now but there should be wins over the Suns and Magpies. Need Darcy Parish to rebound from his 15 disposals against the Giants.

10: RICHMOND

32 pts 98.2%

RUN HOME: v Richmond (H), Brisbane (H) West Coast (H) St Kilda (A)

WE SAY: Going to be a major battle to make the eight now Nat Fyfe has had shoulder surgery and Michael Walters is also injured. Have struggled against the top teams all season and must find a way to get past three teams fighting for a September berth and another in the premiership hunt. Will rue last week’s loss to the Swans.

12: ST KILDA

32 pts 86.9

RUN HOME: v Carlton (H), Sydney (A), Geelong (A) Fremantle (H)

WE SAY: Hard to believe the Saints are still in the hunt after their troubles earlier in the season. Had a day out from Max King helped them snatch victory over the Eagles last weekend, they would have been well placed. Regardless, they should beat the Blues and Dockers and need at least one more win against the Swans or Cats, or potentially both as their percentage is the worst of the contending teams. Rowan Marshall’s return will be crucial.

Sam McClure is a sport reporter for The Age and winner of 'best news reporter' at the AFL Media Association awards.

Jon Pierik is a sports journalist at The Age. He covers AFL and has won awards for his cricket and basketball writing.

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